Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 5.014169 5.978635 7.047189 8.314429 9.771616 11.389948 13.318266
2025-03-09 3.432953 4.681882 6.224000 8.247122 10.807856 13.915948 17.945432
2025-03-16 2.438456 3.750675 5.532605 8.079757 11.569104 16.116492 22.413299
2025-03-23 1.971515 3.359939 5.401618 8.531428 13.097013 19.384846 28.539351
2025-03-30 1.562299 2.932401 5.101317 8.643300 14.105798 21.998787 33.993727
2025-04-06 1.245854 2.562943 4.796697 8.661924 14.928179 24.374416 39.275802
2025-04-13 1.000982 2.249228 4.509185 8.635920 15.638389 26.604741 44.487805
2025-04-20 0.905022 2.186431 4.632469 9.294380 17.492958 30.717157 52.837509
2025-04-27 0.778158 2.028301 4.548922 9.567178 18.715487 33.911157 59.974305
2025-05-04 0.682782 1.912037 4.520269 9.925135 20.104632 37.464322 67.910476
2025-05-11 0.570475 1.726543 4.316889 9.915831 20.824253 39.938151 74.232930
2025-05-18 0.455854 1.501525 3.985789 9.600271 20.932795 41.353760 78.858697
2025-05-25 0.352979 1.277406 3.618869 9.170573 20.804861 42.394914 83.021615
2025-06-01 0.290977 1.147271 3.444224 9.125496 21.426248 44.837912 89.815367
2025-06-08 0.234388 1.012346 3.228229 8.952796 21.765580 46.781224 95.846984
2025-06-15 0.214405 0.990239 3.298279 9.449351 23.543706 51.557743 107.304337
2025-06-22 0.183610 0.918326 3.218312 9.572733 24.530233 54.870967 116.243459
2025-06-29 0.154552 0.840547 3.104398 9.593521 25.289626 57.785482 124.599131
2025-07-06 0.129006 0.764998 2.979404 9.565308 25.931444 60.502290 132.726640
2025-07-13 0.124371 0.778131 3.130256 10.283622 28.350213 66.973107 148.431546
2025-07-20 0.110817 0.744672 3.125750 10.581028 29.809259 71.555024 160.677506
2025-07-27 0.100531 0.722369 3.153481 10.971094 31.521988 76.766324 174.421508
2025-08-03 0.084888 0.664259 3.045670 10.960961 32.262539 79.966826 184.313878